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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model