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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 17

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-E.Elliott [7-H.Reddick].

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model