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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.58 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model