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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 48

New England Patriots 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 25

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP