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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 25 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (6-C.Gonzalez) [9-M.Judon].

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.49 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model