Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to SF 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to SF 35 for 7 yards (46-C.Kuntz, 37-E.Riley). PENALTY on PIT-46-C.Kuntz, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model