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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model