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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to SF 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model