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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to PIT 34 for 11 yards (50-E.Roberts; 20-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model