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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 26-A.McFarland to SF 11 for 5 yards (20-A.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.39 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP