Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(7:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-C.Austin to PIT 6 for 2 yards (0-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model