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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP