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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model