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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model