4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to TB 39, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.96 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP