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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model