Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(10:03) 14-R.Wright punts 54 yards to TB 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 23 for no gain (83-J.Nailor).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.54 EP
56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model