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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to TB 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 30 for 16 yards (33-B.Asamoah).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.02 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model