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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model