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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-C.Austin to CLE 39 for 14 yards (26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 51, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model