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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model