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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP