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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model