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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.00 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model