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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model