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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -3.25 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model