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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 35, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model