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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model