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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 4 at the 6
Atlanta Falcons 12 – Green Bay Packers 24
What Actually Happened
(11:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.74 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.27 EP
KICK
+2.17 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT
+0.15 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
