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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 23
Atlanta Falcons 22 – Green Bay Packers 24
What Actually Happened
(2:08) 7-B.Robinson right end to GB 16 for 7 yards (20-R.Ford).
The Three Options
GO
+2.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.75 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
KICK
+1.63 EP
- 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
