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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. Penalty on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model