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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model