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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model