Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

(12:37) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 20 yards (56-M.Rice).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model