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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 86

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 35 for 11 yards (57-L.Gifford; 36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model