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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 5-K.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model