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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model