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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP