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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO +4.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model