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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model