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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LV 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model