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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 6
Buffalo Bills 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7
What Actually Happened
(5:09) 17-J.Allen up the middle to LV 4 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
The Three Options
GO
+4.07 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.95 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth +0.35 EP
KICK
+2.27 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
