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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 65

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 58 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 16 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model