Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to NE 44, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas. PENALTY on NE-5-J.Peppers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.75 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model