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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 31

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model