Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 3

(13:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 36 for 12 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model