Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 3

(15:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NE 42, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas to NE 42 for no gain (51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.27 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model