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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 96

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to MIA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at NE 43 for 18 yards (45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -3.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 96, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model