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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP