Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

(8:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model